Normal Distribution
nothing is called 95% until it has been counted
Field

A guarantee that needed a symmetry

What a balancing rule can remove of an interaction is decided by parity, and parity is a statement about a symmetry of the law rather than about the covariate. Keep the dependence and change the marginals — a Gaussian copula under a monotone transformation — and the two things every trial balances come apart. A median split is a function of the sign of the latent normal whatever the marginal is, so its exact zero survives every transformation to the last digit. A mean is odd only when the marginal is symmetric, and its zero is gone at a skewness of one. The separating case is a marginal that is heavy-tailed and symmetric, where every zero holds exactly: it is not normality the guarantees needed. And a threshold at a value on the covariate's own scale never had one at all.
One zero holds and one does not. Three rules, at a correlation of 0.5, against the skewness of the covariate. A rule balancing the mean of each covariate removes exactly nothing of their product when the marginal is symmetric — including the heavy-tailed symmetric one at skewness zero, which is what says the guarantee needs symmetry rather than normality — and removes up to 29.7% when it is not. A rule balancing a median split of each removes exactly nothing of the product of the splits under every marginal here, to 1e-30: both sides are functions of the sign of the latent normal, and a monotone transformation moves neither. A rule balancing a threshold at a value on the covariate's own scale removes between 4.9% and 22.5% — it never had a zero to lose, under any marginal at all.

A zero that rests on a symmetry

A balancing rule removes exactly none of an interaction between two odd functions, at every correlation. The argument needs the joint sign flip to preserve the law, and no real covariate is symmetric about anything.

 Where the two kinds of cut sit. Six covariates, each a monotone transformation of the same latent normal. The vertical line at zero is where every median split sits, on every one of them, because a monotone map preserves order: the median of the covariate is the image of the median of the latent normal. The marks on the curves are where a threshold at 1 on the covariate's scale falls — 1.000, 0.881, 0.875, 0.783, 0.713, 0.337 — and none of them is at zero. That is the whole of the difference. A function of the sign of the latent normal is odd, and a rule made of odd functions removes exactly nothing of an interaction between two of them; a threshold anywhere else is neither odd nor even and removes something.

A split survives what a mean does not

The two things every trial balances come apart on a skewed covariate. A median split is a function of the sign of the latent normal whatever the marginal is; a mean is not, and its exact zero is gone at a skewness of one.

 A cut at a quantile, and a cut at a value. Two rules that read identically in a protocol. One splits each covariate at its median; the other splits it at 1 on the covariate's own scale — a dose, a temperature, a clinical threshold. At a correlation of 0.5 the first removes exactly nothing of the interaction between its own two splits, under every marginal here, because a median split is a function of the sign of the latent normal whatever the marginal is. The second removes what the bars show, and it does so on a normal covariate too: the threshold sits at 1.000 on the latent scale rather than at zero, so it is 59.4% odd and 40.6% even. The exact zero was never about the cut; it was about the cut being at the median.

The cut that is not a quantile

A protocol that says split the covariate at a threshold and one that says split it at the median read the same and are different rules. One has an exact guarantee under every marginal and the other has none under any.

 A guarantee that stops being a number. The worst case of each dictionary over six outcome shapes, at a correlation of 0.5, against the skewness of the covariate. Under a symmetric marginal every rule made of odd functions has a worst case of exactly zero, and the rule holding a mean and a median split of each covariate — the two things every trial balances — is one of them. Under skew that zero becomes 0.74%, 1.83%, 2.24%, 2.49%: small numbers, each of which depends on a marginal nobody stated. The guarantee has not improved by becoming positive. It has stopped being a guarantee, because it can no longer be written down without the covariate's distribution in it.

Balancing a skewed covariate

The worst case of the rule every trial runs goes from exactly zero to somewhere between a quarter of a per cent and two and a half. Which is small, and is a number that cannot be stated without the covariate's distribution in it.

All essays